NHC Forecast Strike Probabilities 

SPFAT5
HURRICANE MICHELLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MICHELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.3 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM EST WED NOV  7 2001
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
23.4N  80.6W      44  X  X  X 44   MYGF 266N 787W     X 17  7  X 24
25.1N  77.9W       2 24  3  X 29   BERMUDA            X  X  X  9  9
27.5N  73.5W       X  X 15  4 19   MARATHON FL       22 10  X  X 32
MWCG 193N 814W     6  X  X  X  6   MIAMI FL           3 22  1  X 26
MUGM 200N 751W     X  1  1  X  2   W PALM BEACH FL    X 17  4  X 21
MUCM 214N 779W     6 10  1  X 17   FT PIERCE FL       X 10  6  X 16
MUCF 221N 805W    51  X  X  X 51   COCOA BEACH FL     X  4  6  1 11
MUSN 216N 826W    79  X  X  X 79   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  1  4  X  5
MUHA 230N 824W    46  X  X  X 46   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  2  2
MUAN 219N 850W    13  1  X  X 14   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2
MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  2  2  4   KEY WEST FL       25  6  X  X 31
MYMM 224N 730W     X  1  7  1  9   MARCO ISLAND FL    2 17  X  X 19
MYSM 241N 745W     X  5 14  X 19   FT MYERS FL        1 12  2  X 15
MYEG 235N 758W     X 15  7  X 22   VENICE FL          X  7  1  X  8
MYAK 241N 776W     6 22  2  X 30   TAMPA FL           X  3  1  X  4
MYNN 251N 775W     1 23  5  X 29
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM MON TO  1PM MON
C FROM  1PM MON TO  1AM TUE
D FROM  1AM TUE TO  1AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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Last updated: 09/10/12